Trump Promises Iran Deal This Weekend - Hormuz Opens, Oil Drops

Friday, June 12, and markets flipped hard from “war” to “maybe they’ll actually cut a deal.”

Trump in the Oval Office said the US and Iran are close to a “very strong” memorandum. Signing could happen this weekend - possibly in Europe. VP JD Vance, according to the president, is flying to the ceremony. Hormuz, Trump promised, opens “right after signing.”

Markets reacted instantly: US stocks up, oil down. Simple logic - if the strait opens, some of the risk premium comes off.

What’s reportedly in the American draft:

• Ceasefire extension and partial sanctions relief
• Partial US troop pullback from Iran and end of the naval blockade
• Unfreezing Iranian funds and lifting oil restrictions
• Nuclear topic - no bomb, but details still fuzzy

Iran’s side is more cautious. Mehr News describes a similar draft but stresses there’s no final decision. Sources in Tehran told Axios key points aren’t agreed yet and top leadership hasn’t formally approved the text.

So right now this is more the American version of progress than signed reality.

Context matters: the war has run since late February, thousands dead, oil trading with a premium for weeks. This week brought more strikes on Hormuz, retaliatory missiles at bases across the region, talk of seizing Kharg - the island through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass.

Trump canceled a new wave of strikes the day before, citing talks. Skeptics at the Washington Institute remind everyone this might not be “peace forever” - just a ceasefire extension while they bargain over nukes and tanker passage.

What to watch before Monday:

• Will both sides publish an official text, not just quotes for cameras
• Will tankers actually move through Hormuz without incidents
• Will someone blow up the deal with one strike over the weekend

For now the main signal is this: the market believes in de-escalation faster than politicians can confirm it.